My Woodbine Pick Four Ticket: Saturday, October 16

As promised in my post earlier this week, I'm going to take a crack at the $100,00 guaranteed late pick four for Woodbine on Saturday. Now for me, I'm a low-budget bettor when it comes to the track. Not that I wouldn't like to wager a few extra dollars, but my current budget only really allows me to put $2 to win on a horse and hope it comes through. With that said, I know there's some of you out there who like to play the pick four more aggressively, so I've decided to put tickets together based on two budgets: a $25 budget and a $50 budget. Woodbine has made this weekend's pick four very difficult, so I would rather not key any horses but instead spread them out over each race. 



For my $25 budget, I'm going to pick two horses in three races and three horses in another race. For the $50 budget, I'm going to select three horses in three races and two in another. Without further delay, here's where I'm going tomorrow:

Race 8

In the Nearctic Stakes, I see a pace that could be set by five of the 12 horses in the field. The two horses I feel have an advantage are Grand Adventure and Bridgetown. These two will be able to jump out right on the rail and save ground in this sprint turning for home. The field could be five-wide in the turn, so I'm going to use Grand Adventure and Bridgetown in my ticket. However, a hectic pace duel up front, could open the door for a closer down the stretch, so I'm also going to throw Balthazaar's Gift in there as well. For my $50 budget I will take all three, but for the $25 ticket, I will go with one front runner and one closer, Bridgetown and Balthazaar's Gift.

Summary:  3-11-2

Race 9

In the E.P. Taylor Stakes, I see Miss Keller and Contredanse setting the pace early on. Keeping with my one horse on the pace, one horse off the pace theme in my tickets, I will use Contredanse as one horse. The fact that this horse is on first-time Lasix from Europe and has Garrett Gomez riding should help as well. From off the pace, I like Akarlina. This horse races primarily in France, a very good circuit, and has won four of her last five races, including one against Group III company. I will also use a little bit of a longshot, Mekong Melody on my $50 ticket. This horse has won four of her last six races and is shortening up in distance. Roger Attfield is also 29% with horses who have won their last start for an average ROI of $3.05.

Summary: 7-10-3

Race 10

Without giving away too much for my breakdown of the field post later on, I will take Fifty Proof for my pace horse, who was just beaten by Redwood the last time out. As a closer I like Chinchon. I'm not sure I can completely discard Redwood from consideration either, considering he's beaten horses in this race at this distance on this course. 

Summary: 2-9-8

Race 11

To cap off the pick four, we have a difficult Maiden Claiming race for $12,500 claimers. Talk about top to bottom. Not many horses have tried this one mile and one sixteenth distance so I think I will shy away from those horses. That could come back to haunt me but we will see. Two horses I was immediately drawn to are Hazards of Love and Disclosure. Both horses ran close together in a race on August 27th, that featured a 22 second time down the stretch. Although both horses faded behind the winner, both are dropping in here and should be up for it.

Summary: 13-14

So here it is. My pick four tickets based on two budgets. Do you have something different? Let me know by commenting below.

$50 Budget

Race 8: 3-11-2
Race 9: 7-10-3
Race 10: 2-9-8
Race 11: 13-14

Total Cost: $54

$25 Budget

Race 8: 3-11
Race 9: 7-10
Race 10: 2-9-8
Race 11: 13-14

Total Cost: $24 

Posted in: Selections,Woodbine