Previewing The 2011 Breeders' Stakes

Celtic Conviction. Courtesy: WEG / Michael Burns Photography

The 2011 Breeders' Stakes will take place on Sunday afternoon at Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto. The 121st running of the Breeders', the third jewel in the Canadian Triple Crown, will be run over one-mile and one-half on Woodbine's famous E.P. Taylor Turf Course for three-year-olds foaled in Canada. The 13 horses in the race will be running for a purse of $500,000.

Originally a field of 14, on Friday we learned that the 3-1 morning line favourite, Queen'splatekitten, would not be making the trip north from Saratoga for the Breeders' Stakes. Trainer Todd Pletcher was not completely happy with how Queen'splatekitten was doing at this time and will look for another race for the three-year-old son of Kitten's Joy. The scratch is a pretty significant one, as Queen'splatekitten was graded stakes placed in a race on turf at Gulfstream over the winner.

Let's break down the field one-by-one, and I will also provide you with my selections for the race:

#1 - DELAWANA (12-1)

Delawana enters the Breeders' Stakes coming off of his maiden victory in a one-mile and one-quarter Maiden Special Weight race on turf at 82-1 odds. He led the entire way, setting a fairly slow pace and breaking from post 10. The condition of the turf course was firm in that race, and with a slight chance of rain overnight in Toronto, it is likely that the turf course will remain firm for the Breeders' Stakes. That's certainly a benefit for this one, who despite leading throughout in his last race, will likely race in the middle of the pack in the early going. Expect the pace to be 48 to 49 seconds at the half mile, but I think others will come home faster than Delawana. Certainly one to consider at the bottom of exotic tickets.

#2 - STUNNING SPLIT (15-1)

Stunning Split comes into the Breeders' Stakes as one of two maidens in this field and that's one reason why you see the morning line at 15-1. Stunning Split has run the best two races of his career in his last two times out, both of those on turf. On June 10th, Stunning Split finished second to Clement Rock in a one-mile and one-sixteenth Maiden Special Weight race on a firm turf course and in his last race, on July 16th, Stunning Split finished fifth behind winner Delawana in that one-mile and one-quarter turf event as the heavy favourite. Stunning Split, like Delawana, should race in the middle of the pack in the early going, but again, I think others will come home faster.

#4 - CROWN'S PATH (20-1)

Crown's Path is another Breeders' Stakes entrant who won his last start, a one-mile and one-eighth Maiden Special Weight race on turf. In the race, Crown's Path came from off of the pace and pulled away in the end, winning by two and one-quarter lengths. Crown's Path matched his career best Beyer figure of 72 with that win, but that is far below the career highs of several others in this field. Expect Crown's Path to sit towards the back of the pack in the early going, and with some quick horses in front of him, he's going to need a strong run down the stretch. An interesting stat for Crown's Path is trainer Gregory de Gannes' win percentage with turf runners. In 34 starts, de Gannes is clicking at a 24% win rate (8 winners), with a return on investment of $2.81. This could be a reason to throw him in on the bottom of your tickets, but I think I will look elsewhere.

#5 - CONTROL (15-1)

Last time out, Control faded late to finish second in a one-mile and one-quarter non-winners of two allowance race on turf. Control took the lead mid-stretch but faltered late was caught at the line by Cojac. It was the fourth consecutive race that Control ran at the non-winners of two classification, but his first race on turf. He earned a career best Beyer Figure of 77 in the defeat and now adds an additional two furlongs, which is a bit of a concern for me. He's also taking the blinkers off, which hasn't been effective for him in the past.

#6 - SEAWATCH (10-1)

Expect Seawatch to take some money as he runs here for Josie Carroll and Donver Stable. He ran pretty big in the Queen's Plate at 41-1, finishing sixth behind the winner, and fellow Donver Stable horse, Inglorious. One thing I've always felt about Seawatch is that he needs a quick pace to run at to be successful, and he certainly got a quick early pace in the Queen's Plate. Here, I'm not so sure he's going to get that quick pace to run at as I'm projecting a half mile in 48 or 49 seconds. Another stat that doesn't give me confidence is Carroll's 4% win rate with first-time turf horses this season.

#7 - MOLINARO REMARKS (30-1)

Molinaro Remarks will likely be the pace setter in this race after leading the opening half-mile in each of his last two starts, both of which have been on turf. This horse is clearly a better turf horse, as he's run consecutive 74 Beyers on turf after only managing a high of 35 on polytrack in four starts. Molinaro Remarks ran in the same non-winners of two Allowance race that Control finished second in on July 8th. Molinaro Remarks led the race throughout, but faded to fourth in the stretch run. With an additional two furlongs tacked on, if Molinaro Remarks were to fade, it might be towards the back of the pack. 

#8 - BLACKSTONE BAY (20-1)

Blackstone Bay broke his maiden last time out in a one-mile Maiden Claiming race on turf. It's a huge step up in class for the three-year-old son of Stormy Atlantic, but I think he might be able to do it. Luis Contreras has been on this one in every career start except for his first, and now Blackstone Bay gets second-place jockey Patrick Husbands, which is my reason for considering this one. Husbands rode Control and Runaway Whiz in their last starts, but is now moving over to Blackstone Bay for trainer Mark Casse. Despite the distance concerns, I'm going to throw this one on the bottom of my triactor ticket and see what happens. 

#9 - PENDER HARBOUR (7-2)

Pender Harbour could take a stranglehold on the three-year-old male division in Canada with a win in this race. Pender Harbour won the Prince of Wales Stakes last time out in a terrific stretch battle, narrowing beating Bowman's Causeway and Oh Canada. Pender Harbour also finished third in the Queen's Plate. Pender Harbour will try turf for the first time in his career here and gets Woodbine's leading rider Contreras in the irons. Pender Harbour will likely look to come from off of the pace in this one, but I feel that he won't be able to catch Celtic Conviction, who will be a little further ahead going into the stretch. I will have this one in the exactor.

#10 - DIEGO BAY (20-1)

Diego Bay is the other maiden in this race, with Stunning Split, and has only had three career starts, all this season. Last time out, Diego Bay finished fourth behind the winner Delawana in a Maiden Special Weight race that was contested over one-mile and one-quarter on turf. Diego Bay angled out late in the race and ran well, but was too far off of the pace to get into the money. He should find himself coming off of the pace in this one as well, but I think Pender Harbour will close faster than this horse. Expect a middle of the pack finish for Diego Bay.

#11 - CELTIC CONVICTION (6-1)

Celtic Conviction will be my top selection in this race, although I probably won't get 6-1 on him with the scratch of Queen'splatekitten. Last time out, Celtic Conviction finished second in the Toronto Cup Stakes behind Clement Rock as a 31-1 longshot. Celtic Conviction stalked the pace and tried to catch the winner, but came up just short, losing by a neck. Celtic Conviction is the lone stakes winner on turf in this field, winning the Cup and Saucer as a two-year-old at odds of 43-1. This one is certainly bred for turf as well, as sire Strut the Stage was a graded stakes winner on turf. Celtic Conviction should be forwardly placed in this one and should be in good position to hit the line first.

#12 - RUNAWAY WHIZ (30-1)

Runaway Whiz is coming back to the track after finishing second behind Ojibway Signal on July 20th in a non-winners of two Allowance race on Polytrack. Ojibway Signal has been on a tear after running in the Queen's Plate, winning two consecutive races, so Runaway Whiz may be exiting a key race. An interesting trainer stat for Runaway Whiz is a 25% win rate for Mark Frostad in his horse's second race after a 45-180 day layoff, but the return on investment is only $1.63. Husbands had ridden this one in his last two races and now goes to Blackstone Bay in this one. I anticipate he will be a longshot in this race and I don't expect much from this three-year-old son of Old Forester. 

#13 - BORN TO BOOGIE (15-1)

Born to Boogie comes into the Breeders' Stakes off of a win in an non-winners of two Allowance race on turf all the way back on June 18th. In that race, Born to Boogie raced in the middle of the pack, off of the pace, came four-wide in the turn and found enough to win. This three-year-old is lightly raced, with two starts as a two-year-old and two starts as a three-year-old. If you're looking for a fresh horse, this could be the one for you. Since it's been so long since this one has raced, we have to look at the workouts to see what kind of condition this horse is in. In his latest work on July 29th, Born to Boogie breezed five furlongs in a solid 1:00.40 on the turf training course. This horse could have upset potential but I have chosen to look elsewhere.

#14 - HIPPOLYTUS (8-1) 

Hippolytus is competing with Pender Harbour for the lead in the three-year-old male division after a second place finish in the Queen's Plate and a fourth place finish in the Prince of Wales Stakes. Hippolytus and Pender Harbour are the only two horses who will have run in all three races in the Triple Crown and freshness could be an issue. In the Prince of Wales, Hippolytus faded to fourth in the stretch after stalking the pace throughout and this may happen again in the Breeders' Stakes. Hippolytus will try the turf for the first time as well in this race and I believe he will finish in the middle of the pack.

SELECTIONS

1. Celtic Conviction

2. Pender Harbour

3. Blackstone Bay

4. Delawana

Who's your pick to win the $500,000 Breeders' Stakes at Woodbine tomorrow? Visit our Facebook page by clicking here, and participate in our poll, or leave your comments below. Good luck and enjoy the race!

Posted in: Selections,Woodbine