Three Weekend Prep Races Could Alter Derby Landscape

The trail to the Kentucky Derby resumes this weekend and three graded stakes race could have a huge impact on the Kentucky Derby landscape. On Saturday, the El Camino Real Derby will be run at Golden Gate, the Robert B Lewis Stakes will be run at Santa Anita and the Sam F Davis Stakes will be run at Tampa Bay Downs. Let's have a look at each race individually going into the weekend.

El Camino Real Derby

Out of the three races being run this weekend, both the El Camino Real Derby and the Robert B Lewis Stakes could have a huge impact on the 2011 Kentucky Derby. These two races not only carry significant purses earnings for the winner towards the Derby, but they essentially act as quarterfinals in MI Development's $5.5 million Preakness bonus program. With this in mind, one horse who wins one of these races this weekend, may choose to skip the Kentucky Derby if they also win the Santa Anita Derby, for a massive pay day in the Preakness.

In the $200,000 Grade III El Camino Real Derby, Comma to the Top will look to make it two graded stakes victories in a row and solidify his place on the Kentucky Derby Earnings list. There are many doubts about his ability to stretch out, however, as he mainly comes from a sprint pedigree. Expect Comma to the Top to lead from the outset, as going gate to wire may be his only shot to win this race. Another top contender includes Positive Response, a local horse who has won his last three starts at Golden Gate. Positive Response will sit off the lead and try to catch Comma to the Top late in the race. Silver Medallion might be another contender, as he ships up from Southern California for Steven Asmussen. Silver Medallion will come off of the turf after winning the Eddie Logan Stakes on New Year's Eve at Santa Anita.

El Camino Real Derby
PP. Horse. Jockey.Trainer
1. Comma to the Top, C S Nakatani, P Miller
2. Bluegrass Reward, J J Hernandez, S Miyadi
3. Formula Gold, H R Romero, L C Mason
4. Silver Medallion, R A Baze, S M Asmussen
5. Positive Response, J Couton, W E Morey
6. Anthony's Cross, A T Gryder, E G Harty
7. Jakesam, F T Alvarado, J Hollendorfer


Robert B Lewis Stakes

The $250,000 Grade II Robert B Lewis Stakes will be run on Saturday at Santa Anita as the other "quarterfinal" in the MI Developments Preakness $5.5 million bonus program. The winner of this race would most likely face off with the winner of the El Camino Real Derby in the Santa Anita Derby, for a shot at running for $5.5 million at the Preakness Stakes in May. Currently a field of eight will most likely be shortened to a field of six or seven, as both Anthony's Cross and Comma to the Top are cross-entered here and in the El Camino Real Derby. Comma to the Top is running in the El Camino Real and Anthony's Cross' plans are unknown at this time. With a field of six heading to the gate it looks like it's full steam ahead for Tapizar. The winner of the Sham Stakes by quite a margin in his last start last month, Tapizar is going up against a field of generally unproven horses. Out of the field, Riveting Reason, Wegner and Ten Devils may look like horses that could provide an upset, but these horses may just be running to fill out the triactor. Expect Tapizar to take the victory and be pointed towards the Santa Anita Derby in March.

Robert B Lewis Stakes
PP. Horse. Jockey. Trainer
1. Wegner, R Bejarano, B Baffert
2. Anthony's Cross, J Rosario, E G Harty
3. Comma to the Top, C S Nakatani, P Miller
4. Tapizar, G K Gomez, S M Asmussen
5. Ten Devils, J Talamo, R E Mandella
6. Riveting Reason, V Espinoza, M K Cho
7. Quail Hill, M A Pedroza, D E Hofmans
8. Thirtyfirststreet, P A Valenzuela, D F O'Neill


Sam F Davis Stakes

The lone east coast Kentucky Derby prep race this weekend will take place at Tampa Bay Downs in the $225,000 Grade III Sam F Davis Stakes. Winstar Farm owned and half brother to 2010 Kentucky Derby Champion Super Saver, Brethren, looks to be a main contender in this weekend's race. Brethren broke his maiden at Belmont Park in October and followed that up with an Allowance victory at Churchill Downs in November. He has been preparing for this three-year-old season with Todd Pletcher at Palm Meadows and will make the cross-state trip to compete in the Sam F Davis. Brethren's main competition looks to come from Beamer, Monzon and Washington's Rules. Of those three competitors, Monzon is the only horse who has won a stakes race at this point in his career. Should Brethren go on to win the Sam F Davis, it could set up a mini Kentucky Derby preview in the Tampa Bay Derby. Uncle Mo will be running in the Tampa Bay Derby and could meet Brethren as a possible tune up race, unless Brethren's connections decide to take him elsewhere.

Sam F Davis Stakes
PP. Horse. Jockey. Trainer
1. Reprized Halo, F Z Maysonett, M J Azpurua
2. Adulare, A O Solis, G R Arnold, II
3. Washington's Rules, K J Desormeaux, K G McPeek
4. Too Experience, D Centeno, M Passley
5. Watch Me Go, L Garcia, K O'Connell
6. Litigate, J Valdivia Jr., D P Duggan
7. Beamer, L R Goncalves, C A Nafzger
8. Monzon, E S Prado, I Correas, IV
9. Ribo Bobo, D Coa, M J Azpurua
10. Brethren, R A Dominguez, T A Pletcher

Of the three races, it looks like the El Camino Real Derby is the most intriguing. Questions are surrounding Comma to the Top's ability to stretch out to one mile and one eighth and it will be interesting to see if he can answer all of those questions on Saturday. Check back with At The Post on Sunday as we will provide you with the lastest Graded Stakes Earnings Standings and a recap of each of the three Kentucky Derby prep races.

Posted in: Triple Crown