A Preview Of Breeders' Cup Friday

Tomorrow the Breeders' Cup will kick off at Churchill Downs and six of the 14 Breeders' Cup races are scheduled for Friday. Here's a preview and my selections for Friday's races, starting with the sixth race of the card, the Marathon and finishing off with the Ladies' Classic.



Marathon

The Breeders' Cup Marathon, the longest race of the Breeders' Cup series, will kick off Friday's Breeders' Cup program. The morning line favourite is West Point Thoroughbreds owned Awesome Gem at 7-2. Here's how I feel the race will play out.

As the field starts out, I see the pace being set for most of the race by Eldaafer and Gabriel's Hill. Million Seller, Atoned and Alcomo will sit just a few lengths behind the leaders and most of the favourites like Awesome Gem, Prince Will I Am, Giant Oak, and A.U. Miner will most likely start this race between eight to 10 lengths or more behind the lead. Now this is my first time handicapping a Breeders' Cup race, but I get the feeling that the horses coming off the pace will have a better shot in the Marathon. I feel Alcomo will take the lead at some point down the stretch, but I feel that Giant Oak will come on with closing speed to grab the victory.

One horse I'm intrigued with in this race is Bright Horizon. This horse won his last start going two miles! The race was on turf but it's encouraging that the horse has run a distance longer than this race, when all other horses in the field will be trying it for the first time. This horse is also on first-time lasix and has a bit of a weight advantage. I think this is a horse to consider so I will slide it on the bottom of my ticket:

1. Giant Oak
2. Alcomo
3. Bright Horizon

Juvenile Fillies Turf

In the Juvenile Fillies Turf, I feel New Normal will break from the gate clear of the field and will set a fairly quick pace. A group in behind New Normal will include Wyomia, Fancy Point and Allure d'Amour coming from outside posts. It's tough to see how this race is going to play out once the field turns for home. There's horses in here who have won by wiring the field and there's horses who have won with a strong kick. I think I'm going to try a European on turf in Together. This horse was just beaten by a neck at this distance two races back and carried more weight than she will today. This horse is also experienced having raced seven times already this year, more than any other horse in the field except Nina Fever who may not even go to the gate, and is on first-time lasix.

1. Together
2. New Normal
3. Winter Memories
4. Kathmanblu

Fillies and Mares Sprint

The Fillies and Mares Sprint should have a hotly contested pace with as many as seven of the fourteen horses in the field pushing for the front in the early going. This group includes the favourite Rightly So. It's tough to figure out who will be in front on the pace, but this race looks like it's shaping up for a closer. This plays out well for Champagne d'Oro and Dubai Majesty who will be able to stay out of the traffic on the rail with outside posts. Informed Decision is a closer who may have a troubled trip with a lot of traffic so I'm going to stay away there. I'm going to go with Champagne d'Oro to win since this horse has won at the distance. I will also go with Dubai Majesty in the exactor and slide Rightly So on the bottom of the triactor. I also like longshot Switch, who almost beat Zenyatta earlier this year.

1. Champagne d'Oro
2. Dubai Majesty
3. Rightly So
LONGSHOT: Switch

Juvenile Fillies




The Juvenile Fillies race has lost some pace with the scratch of Indian Gracey, but this is another race that has a number of horses who like to run in front. Theyskens' Theory, Awesome Feather, A Z Warrior and Delightful Mary could all be pace considerations here. I feel the first half mile will be run in 47 or 48 seconds, setting up the race beautifully for Tell A Kelly. I'm going to take Tell A Kelly in the win spot here and round out my triactor ticket with Awesome Feather and Theyskens' Theory.

1. Tell A Kelly
2. Awesome Feather
3. Theyskens' Theory

Fillies and Mares Turf

In the Fillies and Mares Turf race, it's not hard to immediately identify who you might want to include in the top spot of your ticket. The defending champion Midday enters this race having won four of her last five Group I starts in Europe, including a victory in her last race in France. Shared Account figures to be the early pace in the race, with Midday, Plumania, Harmonious and Red Desire all tracking the lead. I like one of the trackers to pull away with the lead down the stretch and it will most likely be Midday. However, if you're looking for value, you probably won't find it there and might be looking for an alternate. Harmonious could be it, as she just pulled off her best Beyer figure of her career in the QEII Cup and comes into this race having won four of her last five on turf.

1. Midday
2. Harmonious
3. Red Desire
4. Plumania

Ladies' Classic

The biggest race taking place on Friday, the Ladies' Classic, will close off the Breeders' Cup program for day one. Like a number of other races on Friday's program, this one features a lot of front end speed. Life At Ten figures to be the early speed of the race, but a bad beginning on that inside post could lose the race for her right off the bat. Other horses who should be up front in the early going include Malibu Prayer, Milwaukee Appeal, Acting Happy, Unrivaled Belle and Havre de Grace. With so much speed up front early, it could wear down many of the early contenders and play into the hands of horses like Blind Luck and Persistently. Of the horses who will be up front early, I think Havre de Grace has the best staying ability and will be battling Blind Luck down the lane. I'm going to say Blind Luck will probably be the winner but the value bet is definitely on Havre de Grace. I like an improving Milwaukee Appeal to shock the field and come third and I'll throw Malibu Prayer on the bottom of the superfecta.


1. Blind Luck
2. Havre de Grace
3. Milwaukee Appeal
4. Malibu Prayer

What are your thoughts? Leave a comment below or e-mail me at atthepostblog@gmail.com. Enjoy the races!

Posted in: Selections,US Tracks