Friday, July 15, 2011
Alex
 |
| Hippolytus, pictured, finished second in the Queen's Plate at 61-1 but how will he do as the 2-1 morning line favourite? Courtesy: WEG / Michael Burns Photography |
The 2011 Prince of Wales Stakes, the second jewel of the Canadian Triple Crown, will be run on Sunday afternoon at Fort Erie Racetrack. The one mile and three sixteenth race on dirt has attracted a field of seven, all vying for the winner's share of the lucrative $500,000 purse. The 2011 Prince of Wales Stakes is the ninth race of a 10-race card on Sunday at Fort Erie and post time is scheduled for approximately 5:45 p.m. Here's how I see the race playing out.
The Early Pace
Based on the running lines you see in the racing form, you would expect that Oh Canada will set the early pace, as he did in the 2011 Queen's Plate, run at Woodbine back on June 26th. Despite setting quick fractions, Oh Canada faded in the Plate and finished 13th in the 17 horse field. It's possible that a change of racing tactics may be in play for Oh Canada in the Prince of Wales to try and save some of his energy for the end. If that's the case, look for Welloiledmachine to be in front. The duo, regardless of who is in the lead, will likely try to set a quick pace to bait the favourites into making a move earlier than they would like. Fractions of 23 or 24 seconds in the opening quarter and 48 or 49 seconds at the half-mile pole are likely.
The Backstretch
We've talked about the frontrunners, but let's try to get an idea of what the rest of the field will look like as they head into the final turn. Expect Hippolytus to use a similar stalking style to what he used in the Plate, staying in front of the second group of horses. Hippolytus sat fourth, about four and a half lengths behind a leading trio that included Oh Canada in the Queen's Plate, and was able to get a clean trip to secure the lead going into the stretch. I think Pender Harbour will be shadowing Hippolytus every step of the way down the backstretch, with Check Your Soul and Bowman's Causeway behind them. Oban will likely be the trailer and I don't expect him to challenge on Sunday.
The Final Turn
Check Your Soul will likely make the first move heading into the final turn and expect Bowman's Causeway to go with him. Bowman's Causeway could be the horse that uses the Inglorious trip, just sticking with Check Your Soul until the stretch and trying to draw off of him for the victory. I expect the frontrunning duo of Welloiledmachine and Oh Canada to tire and fade, either in the final turn or at some point down the stretch. Depending on track position, the fading frontrunners could cause some problems for Hippolytus and Pender Harbour, who may get caught in traffic as Check Your Soul and Bowman's Causeway make their moves along the outside.
The Stretch Run
This race is looking like it will set up a great stretch run between four pretty good horses. I expect Hippolytus, Pender Harbour, Check Your Soul and Bowman's Causeway to all have a great shot at winning this race, but I'm going to go with my Queen's Plate selection, Check Your Soul. I expect that he will have a huge bounce back race on Sunday. I like Bowman's Causeway to finish second, Pender Harbour to finish third and Hippolytus to complete the superfecta in fourth. I have a feeling that the traffic issue I mentioned previously will come into play, allowing Check Your Soul and Bowman's Causeway to pass Pender Harbour and Hippolytus in the stretch before those two can really get going. Despite Check Your Soul being my top selection, I wouldn't discount Bowman's Causeway at all, especially since he is one of only two horses in this field to have experience racing on dirt (Welloiledmachine is the other).
To review, here are my top four selections for the 2011 Prince of Wales Stakes:
- Check Your Soul
- Bowman's Causeway
- Pender Harbour
- Hippolytus
Posted in:
1 comments:
I'll go with BOWMAN'S CAUSEWAY. In his first start of the year, the Plate Trial, a race he desparately needed from a conditioning standpoint, he ran very well to finish second to Check Your Soul. Next up, he hung tough for the entire 1 1/4 miles of the Plate after racing wide. His form is clearly on the improve, he returns to what may be his preferable surface and this is his 3rd start following a layoff, often a horse's best. Check Your Soul reeled off three straight victories before his Plate debacle. The wide trip in the Plate did him no favors and it was reported after the race that the horse encountered some physical issues during the running of the race, all of which might have led to his dissapointing finish. Attfield is a master horseman and obviously has corrected whatever issues that hampered his horse from displaying his best, or else he would not have returned for this engagement. I fully expect Check Your Soul to run back to the form that he showed in his previous winning races prior to the Plate. Pender Harbour is an improving animal who was game through the Woodbine stretch last out. His speed figures have now improved in all three of his starts this year and his Queen's Plate figure is his best one to date, which is competitive with the top two. In opposite contrast, his trip however on Plate day was much smoother having raced along the inside for much of the race. He may regress off that top performance or he may continue to rapidly rise. Whatever the outcome, the Prince Of Wales shapes up to be a thrilling race. Enjoy!!!
Selections:
1-BOWMAN'S CAUSEWAY
2-CHECK YOUR SOUL
3-PENDER HARBOUR
Post a Comment