Saturday, June 04, 2011
Alex
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| Inglorious, pictured, is the 5-2 favourite for Sunday's Woodbine Oaks. Courtesy: WEG / Michael Burns Photography |
#1 - Charasmatically (20 - 1)
Owner: Mike Kowalski Trainer: Sam Di Pasquale Jockey: David Clark
Charasmatically comes into Sunday's Woodbine Oaks first time off of a claim for trainer Sam Di Pasquale and owner Mike Kowalski. Dropping into the maiden claiming ranks in her last race, after failing to win in seven previous outings, Kowalski and Di Pasquale claimed the three-year-old daughter of Cozzene for $32,000 and will now start her in the Oaks. She has already raced against three others in this field, Silver Ami and Abrianna on November 18th, when Silver Ami broke her maiden, and Grand Style in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes in October. She is coming into this race off of a good four furlong breeze on May 30 in 48.40.
I expect Charasmatically to rate in the middle of this nine horse field and she will look to close coming down the lane. However, in her last few races, she has run pretty even throughout, not really closing and not really fading. I don't expect her to be near the front in the early going and can't see her closing faster than some of the others in this field. She will probably go off as the longest shot on the board and I can't see her grabbing a piece of the money.
#2 - Abrianna (8 - 1)
Owner: Stronach Stables Trainer: Roger Attfield Jockey: Javier Castellano
Abrianna comes into the Woodbine Oaks on the strength of a win in her last start in a maiden special weight race against fillies and mares three-year-old and up on May 14th. She's lightly raced with just two starts this season and four starts overall in her career. She's a closer type, so you can expect her to be at the back of the pack for most of the race. She's only had one published work since her last race, but it was a good four furlong breeze in 47.20.
Abrianna will be closing hard down the lane in the Oaks, but I don't expect her to close faster than Inglorious. I do think she has a good shot to get to the money in this race, however, and I have selected her in the bottom of my triactor.
#3 - Inglorious (5 - 2)
Owner: Donver Stable Trainer: Josie Carroll Jockey: Luis Contreras
Inglorious looks to be the class of this field as she aims to capture her fourth stakes race on Woodbine's polytrack. Inglorious is coming into this race off of a victory in the one mile and one sixteenth La Lorgnette Stakes. She had to wait for a small opening as she sat behind a wall of five horses at the top of the stretch, but when Luis Contreras found it, he burst right through it to capture victory. Inglorious has raced five times in her career, all in stakes races, and has recorded three victories. She's also graded stakes placed at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, when she came second to Kathmanblu in the Grade III Rachel Alexandra Stakes. She has had one published work since the La Lorgnette, a five furlong breeze in 59.80.
Inglorious will need a great trip to find victory coming from behind and I expect her to be able to find her way through the field. She will be my top selection for the race, but I could still see a scenairo where she doesn't quite get it. She's a pretty safe bet to finish in the top three, however, if you want to use her in a box with a few others.
#4 - Grand Style (8 - 1)
Owner: G. Watts Humphrey Trainer: Michael Doyle Jockey: Eurico Rosa Da Silva
Grand Style ships up from Kentucky for the Woodbine Oaks, most recently racing at Keeneland in the Grade I Central Bank Ashland Stakes on April 9th. In that race, she finished fifth after going off at odds of 72-1! Grand Style won the Princess Elizabeth Stakes last October at Woodbine, defeating Charasmatically in that race. She's coming into the Oaks with four works since her last race, two works at five furlongs and two works at four furlongs. The two five furlong works look very good on paper, as the work on May 28th was in 1:00.80 and the work on May 21st was in 1:01.60. The two four furlong works look good as well. The work on May 14th was completed in 49.80 and the work on April 21st was completed in 48.60.
Despite these results, I just couldn't see Grand Style hitting the board, but I have thrown her on my list as an outsider. It wouldn't be surprising to see her in the top three positions. She could be used on the bottom of triactors and superfectas.
#5 - Bear It's Time (4 - 1)
Owner: Bear Stables Ltd. Trainer: Reade Baker Jockey: Emma-Jayne Wilson
Like a few others in this field, Bear It's Time will be looking to win her second consecutive race in Woodbine Oaks on Sunday. She's coming off of an impressive victory in the seven-furlong Lady Angela Stakes on May 23, but there are a few concerns for this one. First, she's starting in the Oaks less than two weeks since her last start in that Lady Angela victory. Second, Bear It's Time has never gone around two turns. These two points are cause for concern against a very talented field.
I expect to see Bear It's Time forwardly placed in the early going of the Woodbine Oaks, but as the field turns for home, she will mostly likely tire out and begin to fade. I don't have her included on any of my tickets, but she could overcome every point I have made against her to make a splash. Trainer Reade Baker has supplmented her into the race for $12,500, so he's obviously confident in the ability of his filly.
#6 - Silver Ami (15 -1)
Owner: Ivan Dalos Trainer: Josie Carroll Jockey: Tyler Pizarro
Silver Ami has won two straight races and will try to pull off the upset to secure her third win in a row in the Woodbine Oaks. As mentioned previously, Silver Ami broke her maiden in a maiden special weight race on November 18th against Charasmatically and Abrianna, and then followed that up with an allowance victory over one mile and one sixteenth to kick off her 2011 season on May 8th. She's had two published works since her last race, including a six furlong breeze, the longest workout out of any of the contenders. Her six furlong work was her most recent on May 28th in 1:14.20. She also has a five furlong breeze on her work tab, which she completed in 1:00.80 on May 21st.
Unfortunately for Silver Ami, I see her winning streak coming to an end in this race. She should be close to the front, just behind the leaders, but might not have the closing ability of the other horses in the field. She could possibly get a piece of the action to juice up your tickets but I will be staying away.
#7 - Roxy Gap (3 - 1)
Owner: Melnyk Racing Stables Inc. Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Patrick Husbands
Roxy Gap comes into the Woodbine Oaks off of a win in one of the most important preps on the schedule. In the past five seasons, four winners and one second place horse from the Fury Stakes have come back to win the Woodbine Oaks. Those are pretty good odds for this Mark Casse trainee who won the Fury over Marketing Mix. Roxy Gap had a superb two-year-old season at Woodbine, winning her first three races. She captured her first career stakes race and third win overall in the Shady Well Stakes in August and then took some time off before returning to finish third in the Grade III Old Hat Stakes at Gulfstream Park in January. Roxy Gap has worked twice since the Fury Stakes victory, a five furlong breeze in 1:01.20 on May 23rd and another five furlong breeze in 1:00.20 on May 14th.
Roxy Gap should be able to run alone on the lead, at a moderate pace, in the early going of the race and will then need to hold off the charge from the rest of the field, led by Inglorious. I like Roxy Gap's chances against the field but I think Inglorious is just in better form. Roxy Gap also has a small question mark since she has not been around two turns in her career. I put Roxy Gap on the bottom of my exactor ticket, but I would not be surprised at all if she were to win.
#8 - Spooky Kitten (12 - 1)
Owner: Roddy J. Valente Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Edgar Prado
Spooky Kitten comes into the Woodbine Oaks after a fifth placed finish in the La Lorgnette Stakes, won by Oaks favourite Inglorious. Spooky Kitten looks like she might be a little out of her league in this race, as just two starts ago, she was running for a $20,000 tag at Keeneland. She won that race and was claimed by Dale Romans, who sent his filly up to Mark Casse. Before her victory at Keeneland, Spooky Kitten broke her maiden in a maiden claiming race at Turfway, where she was entered for a claiming tag of $15,000. She has one published work since the La Lorgnette three weeks ago, a five furlong breeze in 1:03.00 on May 28th.
Spooky Kitten does have a little bit of speed on her past performance lines, so expect her to be near front in the early going. I'm not really considering her on my tickets because I feel she's just not up to this level yet in her career. Her connections seem to believe that she can get to this level one day, but I don't think it will happen for her on Sunday.
#9 - Marketing Mix (6 - 1)
Owner: Glen Hill Farm Trainer: Tom Proctor Jockey: Jose Lezcano
Marketing Mix comes into the Woodbine Oaks after a second place finish in the Fury Stakes, three quarters of a length behind winner Roxy Gap. Marketing Mix broke her maiden in a maiden special weight race at Keeneland in April and followed that up with her second place finish in the Fury. Out of her three starts, her two most recent are definitely her best. The only concern with Marketing Mix may be the fact that she has not been around two turns in her career, but she has the Fury result in her favour. Last year's second place finisher in the Fury Stakes, Roan Inish, came back to win the Oaks. Marketing Mix has had several works since the Fury, including a three furlong breeze yesterday at Woodbine in 35.40. Based in Kentucky, Marketing Mix has also had a pair of five furlong breezes on dirt, 1:02.20 on May 27th and 1:03.20 on May 19th, and a four furlong breeze on turf, 52.00 on May 12th, at Churchill Downs.
Marketing Mix will be a closer in this field, but I don't think she will close better than Inglorious. The outside post position should give her a relatively clean trip all of the way around the track, which is plus in her favour. I like Marketing Mix at the bottom of exotics but she could get up to capture the top position.
Selections
Here are my selections for Sunday's big race. Who do you think will win? Feel free to leave your top selections in the comment box below:
1st - #3 Inglorious
2nd - #7 Roxy Gap
3rd - #2 Abrianna
4th - #9 Marketing Mix
OUTSIDER - #4 Grand Style
Posted in: Woodbine
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