Derby Prep Recap: February 19-21

This past weekend provided three Kentucky Derby prep races for horse racing fans that took place south of the border in three different states. In Louisana, the Fair Grounds played host to the Grade II $300,000 Risen Star Stakes in a stakes filled program on Saturday. In California, Santa Anita played host to the Grade II $150,000 San Vicente Stakes on Sunday and on Monday, Arkansas and Oaklawn Park held the Grade III $250,000 Southwest Stakes. Let's break down each race, beginning with the Risen Star:

Risen Star Stakes

Mucho Macho Man recorded his first graded stakes victory in his fourth try, capturing the Grade II $300,000 Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds on Saturday afternoon. With Rajiv Maragh picking up the ride after the devastating injury to Eibar Coa at Gulfstream on Friday, Mucho Macho Man sat near the front and used an impressive stretch run to secure the victory.

Decisive Moment, Mucho Macho Man and Santiva all broke well and controlled the race in the first turn as the field moved over the first quarter in a modest 24.67. The favoured hometown horse, Machen, broke last of them all and settled toward the back of the pack. The three front runners continued to carry the field through the backstretch with Liondrive, who was going off at 99-1. Moving into the turn, Decisive Moment led on the rail as Liondrive, Mucho Macho Man and Santiva all began to line up four-wide across the track into the stretch run. In that stretch run, Mucho Macho Man began to take control and held off a challenge from Santiva to secure the victory. Machen looked like he might be able to make a run at it, but faded off as the line got closer and settled for fourth. Rogue Romance finished third.

This was a good performance for Mucho Macho Man, who earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 94 in the victory. While posting that number is good, Mucho Macho Man will probably need to run a bit better to really get Derby hype. I do like this horse's running style for a race like the Kentucky Derby, however. He sat towards the front most of the way in a race that had a modest pace and really turned it on in the stretch to hold off his competition. This style could give him an effective trip in the Derby, as long as there aren't any horses that run too quickly on the front end. I will be keeping this one on my radar and may even place a wager on him in the second Derby future pool.

San Vicente Stakes

The Factor used his blazing front end speed to capture his second win in a row on the Santa Anita dirt course in the Grade II $150,000 San Vicente Stakes in southern California on Sunday. The Factor was able to hold off a hard-charging Sway Away who finished second, ahead of Premier Pegasus in third.

The Factor, Premier Pegasus and City Cool all shot out of the gate like rockets from the outside to start the seven-furlong sprint. Premier Pegasus moved back a little after the first furlong but City Cool and The Factor were able to open up several lengths on the other three competitors right away. The field remained in the unchanged in the running order as they headed into the turn, but City Cool began to tail off the pace as Premier Pegasus tried to hunt down The Factor. As The Factor began to pull away in the stretch, Sway Away began his run but needed to make up about eight lengths. Although it was an almost impossible task, The Factor began to tire slightly as Sway Away continued to make up ground. But the line came too fast for Sway Away and The Factor was able to just hold him off. Premier Pegasus was unchallenged in the stretch and finished third.

This win was another impressive one for The Factor, who earned a 102 Beyer Speed Figure, but questions are already being asked about his ability to stretch out around two turns. I'm not so sure he'll be able to do it, but trainer Bob Baffert will no doubt try his luck and see if he can condition The Factor to the one mile and one quarter distance of the Derby. One horse I will watch from this race is Sway Away. Despite spotting the field eight lengths heading into the stretch, Sway Away was able to make up ground in a powerful kick for the finish. If The Factor wasn't the one setting the pace in this race, I'm sure Sway Away would have been closer to the front and probably would have won. It will be interesting to see where Sway Away goes next and if he can secure enough graded stakes earnings to make it into the Derby field.

Southwest Stakes

Using the short stretch at Oaklawn Park to his advantage, Archarcharch was able to hold off a troubled J P's Gusto to cause a big upset in the Grade III $250,000 Southwest Stakes in Arkansas on Monday. J P's Gusto found himself in a tough spot right before the stretch run and had to settle for second. Elite Alex, with Calvin Borel aboard, finished third.

In a large field of 11 horses, Brickyard Fast broke the best from the outside and jumped to the front to take an early lead ahead of Grant Jack and Derivative. J P's Gusto sat fifth in the two-wide path, while Archarcharch sat sixth, right behind J P's Gusto in the three-wide path. As the field turned into the backstretch the three leaders held a three-length advantage on J P's Gusto and Archarcharch. J P's Gusto began to set up his own troubled trip as Dominguez moved him down to the rail, while Archarcharch still sat to the outside of him. Archarcharch began to move up along the backstretch and moved into the four-wide path in the final turn, while J P's Gusto continued to sit behind the wall of horses. Two others moved up along the outside, creating a six-wide wall of horses on the lead. With J P's Gusto stuck behind the wall and waiting for space, Archarcharch took control in the middle of the track and began to pull away. J P's Gusto finally found space and split horses, but it was too late as Archarcharch took the victory.

It was an impressive win for the nice looking son of, you guessed it, Arch. Jon Court rode his horse brilliantly to secure the victory, keeping Archarcharch to the outside and clear of any trouble. I think J P's Gusto would have done well if there was more room for him to run, but that's part of the game, especially in the 20 horse Kentucky Derby field. It looks like all three of the top horses from this race could run against each other again on March 19 in the Grade II Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn.

Posted in: Triple Crown